London Gold Market Report Friday 12th February 2010

THE PRICE OF GOLD lost half yesterday's rise vs. the US Dollar on Friday in London, heading into the weekend some 1.9% higher from last week as government bonds rose and European shares held flat overall.Gold priced in Euros rose back above €800 an ounce, nearing yesterday's 1-week high ­– and only 1.5% below its all-time peak of Dec. – after Thursday's EU summit ended with no action on Greece's deficit crisis.The Euro today fell to a new 9-month low on news that Germany's economic recovery stalled in the last quarter of 2009."Clearly, the Dollar price of metals does badly when the Dollar is rising," says the VM Group's latest Fortis Metals Monthly report."There is [also] good reason to believe the price of metals in other currencies will fall" when the Dollar rises on the forex market, the London consultancy adds, "because there will be a real impact from a rise in the Dollar price, and the Dollar area is important for producers and consumers of most metals."Reviewing the Dollar's three bull runs since 1980, however, metal prices measured in a basket of other leading currencies "actually tended to increase" in 1995-2002.In the Dollar's bull run of 2008-2009, all metals fell "except gold". "In Euro terms," notes the latest Weekly Commodities from French bank Natixis, the recent "fall in gold prices was only 2.5%, demonstrating the importance of your perspective when considering the use of gold as a safe-haven store of value. "Gold may be an excellent store of value in protecting you from debasement of your own currency, but it may be of little use when it is someone else's currency that is under pressure." As Germany today reported zero GDP growth for the last 3 months of 2009, the 16-nation Eurozone said industrial production shrank 5.0% year-on-year in Dec.That helped drive the Euro down through $1.3600 – a level which set a 28-month high after first being hit at the end of the Dollar's 2002-2005 bear market.Here in London, meantime, "Investors' patience with the UK's deficit [may be] closer to breaking point", notes Marc Ostwald at Monument Securities, adding that the Bank of England could stem the rise in interest rates by extending its £191bn purchase of government debt.But "If investors are [thus] frustrated in venting their anxieties," warns Ostwald, "the risk is they will find an alternative channel through the currency market, where the dynamics of their selling may be less easily controllable."Ten-year UK gilt yields today slipped back to 4.01% as prices were bid higher and the FTSE100 stock index cut this week's rise to 1.7%.Gold priced in Sterling eased £5 lower after very nearly touching £700 an ounce on Thursday."We see a number of headwinds for investors in gold, most notably potential increases in interest rates," said banking & markets analyst Daniel Major at the Royal Bank of Scotland in a report this week."The opportunity cost of investing in commodities is going to be important."Currency strategists at RBS – now 84% owned by the UK government, and set to award £1.3 billion in bonuses after recording a 2009 loss of £7bn – are forecasting "further strength in the Dollar against the Euro," says Major, "and potential rate hikes in the second half of next year."Both of those are potentially negative factors for gold investment."In the US on Thursday, "A tidal wave of commercial-loan failures" threatens more than 3,000 small US banks announced the Congressional Oversight Panel, while new data from RealtyTrac showed a 15% year-on-year rise in US home foreclosures."If history repeats itself," RealtyTrac's CEO James Saccacio is quoted by Tech Ticker, "we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan-modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works."

Adrian Ash http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1265984081.php

Hati-hati bila membaca berita seperti ini ..

10 reasons why gold price will boom
Published on February 10, 2010 15:00:00 IST
Gold price has been in a volatile condition in the last two months. While some analysts have predicted that gold price is doomed and would plunge to a low of $800 per ounce, others hold faith saying that the yellow metal price will only continue to rise and rise.Following are 10 reasons why gold price will continue to boom:

The Stimulus Effect: Including $1 trillion in cash infusions, the stimulus plan will pump $9.7 trillion into the economy, according to Bloomberg. As the Globe & Mail reports flatly, "Many believe that the monetary stimulus efforts will cause a spike in inflation," driving gold higher.

COMEX Traders Predict $1,600 Gold... by December: If gold trades at or above $1,600 by December, some 100,000 call option contracts will be "in the money." Big-money players Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are reportedly helping to drive the action, ahead of a huge purchase of gold futures contracts.

"Big Money" Inflows: In 2008, NYC-based hedge fund Paulson & Co's flagship fund returned 37%, as the world markets burned. Paulson's bullish on gold, big time, including the Mar. 17 purchase of 39.9 million shares of AngloGold, worth $1.28 billion. Other major hedge funds are piling into gold, too, including Eton Park Capital, Greenlight Capital and Hayman Advisors.

China's Doubling Down! China just revealed that it has doubled its gold holdings to 1,054 tons. Yet that still only equals 1.6% of its overall reserves. As China moves out of U.S. Treasuries and into gold, this will help fuel the next leg of the run-up.

Demand Building across the Board: Worldwide demand for gold jumped by $29.7 billion in the first quarter, a 36% bolt, according to the World Gold Council. Demand for gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) rocketed 540%... another trigger for the coming gold boom.

The Paper Dollar's 30% Drop: Since 2001, the U.S. Dollar Index has tanked 30%... while gold has risen 300%. With all the downward pressure on the dollar, and inflation on the way, this trend is about to pick up steam.

Gold/Dow Ratio Signals $8,000 Gold: During major gold bull markets (and corresponding equity bears), gold and the Dow converge at a 1-to-1 ratio. During the last gold bull, the Dow sank to 850 and gold rose to $850. The Dow is now over 8,000... But even if it fell to 4,000, we could see $4,000 gold before this bull run is over!

U.S. Treasury Dept. Signals $5,468 Gold: Currently, the U.S. government holds about 286.9 million ounces of gold. It has printed about $1.569 trillion worth of paper dollars. If each dollar were backed by gold, that would put the price at $5,468.80 an ounce.

Riding the "Commodity Super Cycle": Jim Rogers expects the Commodity Super Cycle to drive commodity prices higher for another eight years... including gold. And he's stockpiling the yellow metal by the day. Every pullback, says Rogers, is another buying opportunity. Considering he's been dead right on every major trend of the past 40 years, we wouldn't bet against him.

Historic Model Predicts $6,214 Gold: During the last gold bull, the yellow metal ran from $35 an ounce to $850, a 24-fold increase. This bull started with gold at $255.95, meaning that if historic trends hold, the price target would be $6,214 an ounce.Courtesy: moneymorning.com
Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/10-reasons-why-gold-price-will-boom-14406.html

Artikel ini diambil dari laman web Public Gold.

Penipuan Pembelian Emas

Sering kali penipuan pembelian emas berlaku seperti yang disiarkan diakhbar. Pembelian emas dengan kaedah2 yang menarik, modal yang sedikit dan pulangan yang besar menyebabkan ramai yang terjebak. Kaedah-kaedah tersebut amat mengelirukan dan kita diberikan angka-angka yang menarik sebagai keuntungan. Pada awalnya memang cukup menarik, dan biasanya masalah mula timbul beberapa bulan kemudian.

Pembelian dan pemilikan emas, tidak memerlukan kaedah-kaedah tersebut. Ia hanya memerlukan wang tunai dan sikap yang positif. Sebenarnya pembelian emas amat mudah. Cara yang selamat ialah membeli terus dari Maybank untuk KE. Pembelian emas daripada pihak lain memerlukan kepercayaan kepada mereka. Kalau kita tidak percaya mereka boleh membeli kembali, cuba elakan kerana berbagai- bagai alasan yang akan diberikan.

Ada juga yang memajakan emas2 mereka untuk mendapatkan tunai dan membeli lagi emas. Bagi saya ini bukanlah cara yang sesuai walaupun 'legal' dari segi undang-undang untuk memiliki emas dengan 'segera' dan 'banyak'.

Sikap sabar dan berwaspada akan membawa kejayaan. Pembelian 'wang' emas ialah untuk jangkamasa panjang.

Understading Gold in a Goldless World

By Alan Lemerande
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lemerande/feb032010.html

What you need to keep in mind is that the floating exchange rate system is essentially a dishonest system, a system of constantly changing weights and measures that only appears to have stability because a tremendous amount of work goes into the system to attempt to keep it that way. Martin Armstrong (www.martinarmstrong.org) is probably better than anyone else at elucidating the inadequacies and inherent detrimental qualities of such a system. Where no media of exchange have fixed values and are only regulated by artificial interest rate controls and quantitative easing, i.e. printing of money, i.e. inflation, there simply cannot be lasting prosperity or honest production without corruption of numerous processes. A good analogy has been given several times by James Dines, that being like a carpenter trying to build a house with a ruler that was constantly changing the length of its inches. Such a task would be problematic at best. Impossible at worst.

Commerce, trade and industry, all bases for what might be termed civilization, the ability of one man to freely trade, without fighting, his products or services with another, must have an honest, unchanging system of weights and measures, i.e. money, or the system will inevitably break down and cease to function.

Through trial and error for thousands of years, civilization after civilization has found only one thing that can do this. That one thing is gold. I understand your concern and argument about gold having no intrinsic value. All I can tell you is that gold has acted as money in every culture, in every civilized society since the beginning of man. Wars have been fought over it. Kingdoms have been destroyed over it. There is a reason for that.

When paper currencies are strong, gold acts as an industrial metal. When currencies collapse, as they always do, gold remonetizes and becomes money again, until things are set in order. The mistake in reasoning you are making is the same many great rulers have made throughout history, mistaking a time of relative peace to mean the end of war forever. Such a ruler drops his defenses and spends his funds on other aspects of life until a foreign power invades him and massacres his men and enslaves and carries away his women and children.

James Turk gave me the best bit of advice anyone has involving gold. He advised me to buy some and hold it in my hand. I regret that when you were here the other night I did not pull out a one ounce gold coin and allow you to hold it for a few moments. Thousands of years of history sits right there in your palm, and you suddenly get an understanding of what I am talking about. It is difficult to describe without experiencing it. It is quite real, however.

The fact that you have trouble seeing the real value of gold is not surprising. It is that exact difficulty that has been enabling me to prosper financially during this cycle as gold continues to remonetize. It is very difficult to make money in any venture that others are acutely aware of involving its inherent advantages. Eventually, that time will come, as it always has, and as if must, where the general populace suddenly recognizes that there must be something more to gold than just a name. Members of the greater society around us will suddenly realize how much they absolutely need something that only weeks before they considered totally worthless. When this happens, things will change suddenly to reflect a new monetary reality as they have done repeatedly for millennia. I write a "new" monetary reality here. The truth, however, is that such a reality is quite ancient. The only truly "new" thing is our inability to understand it.

Be careful in calling gold just a metal with no intrinsic value as you would in calling the Bible just another book or the Complete Works of Shakespeare just another collection of plays. Indeed, "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

All the best,

Dr. Alan Lemerande Jr., M.D.

****

Dr. Al Lemerande is an emergency room physician, gold investor and freelance writer, and he hopes you are having a great day.

Emas Malaysia

Emas yang terdapat di Malaysia ada berbagai-bagai jenis seperti 'gold bar', 'gold bullion', barang kemas dan dinar. Ianya berbagai bentuk dan saiz.

Kijang Emas (KE), adalah gold bullion Malaysia, yang di keluarkan oleh bank negara malaysia. Ianya mempunyai 3 saiz iaitu, 1 oz, 1/2 oz dan 1/4 oz. 1 oz bersamaan 31.105g. Ia adalah emas asli 999.99.

Oleh itu ia sangat lembut dan mudah kemek dan tercalar. KE hanya boleh didapati dari cawangan Maybank yang tertentu. Sila rujuk kepada laman web Maybank. Untuk membelinya amat mudah. Kalau ada akaun di Maybank, kita hanya perlu menulis di atas sekeping cek. Nak bayar tunai pun boleh. Simpan resit dan gold coin KE di tempat yang selamat. Kita hanya boleh berurusan waktu dan hari bekerja sahaja.

Satu syarikat yang baru beroperasi iaitu Public Gold, juga mengeluarkan gold bar, dinar dan gold coin. Harga dan cara membelinya boleh di perolehi melalui laman web mereka. Kita boleh berurusan dengan mereka setiap masa. Banyak syarikat lain juga mengeluarkan emas mereka, seperti dinar emas oleh Ar Rahnu.

Bentuk penyimpanan emas lain ialah 'Gold Paper' ie akaun bank yang di beli dengan nilai harga emas. Setakat ini hanya Public Bank dan Maybank yang mempunyai perkhidmatan ini. Dari segi hukum syarak, jenis pembelian ini di kira haram kerana ketiadaan 'barang emas' yang nyata.

Saya lebih gemar berurusan dengan Maybank untuk membeli KE, kerana mudah memperolehinya dan 'back up' kewangan yang kukuh. Tidak perlu membawa wang tunai. Urusan hanya melalui cek dan akaun sahaja. Margin harga jual beli sekitar 3-6%.

Harga Emas

Untuk melihat harga tempatan, sila rujuk kepada laman web Bank Negara Malaysia (www.bnm.gov.my) dan Maybank (www.maybank2u.com.my)

Harga emas dunia lebih kepada nilai USD. Ketika ini harga emas berlawanan dengan USD iaitu harga emas naik, USD turun atau sebaliknya. Ramai melihat emas sebagai pelaburan dan sebagai 'precious metal', bukan sebagai mata wang. Bagi saya emas sudah di gunakan oleh umat islam sebagai mata wang. Wang kertas sebenarnya tiada nilai yang kukuh, ianya lebih kepadan'jaminan' bank untuk membayar nilai barang tanpa sandaran khusus. Ianya sebagai satu resit hutang!

Banyak faktor yang menyebabkan harga emas turun dan naik. Pada asasnya ialah permintaan dan nilai USD. Bila pemintaan naik atau/dan USD turun, nilai emas naik dan sebaliknya. Kadang2 spekulasi pembelian emas oleh bank pusat, berita ekonomi yang teruk juga boleh mempengaruhi harga emas.

Kita menyimpan untuk jangkamasa panjang. Adalah rugi kalau beli emas dan menjualnya dalam jangkamasa pendek. Kalau dilihat graf, semenjak 2002, harga emas semakin meningkat. Belilah emas jika ada duit lebih yang tak akan di gunakan, dan di simpan emas dengan baik dan di tempat yang selamat.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Wang Kertas Dan Emas

Saya mula menyedari kepentingan emas sebagai 'wang' sebenarnya semenjak Julai 2008. Bila memikirkan bagaimana keadaan ekonomi di dunia yang selalu bercelaru, satu kaedah yang betul perlu di cari. Umat Islam sendiri telah menunjukan dengan begitu baik, bahawa emas dan perak lah satu-satunya yang melambangkan 'wang' yang sebenarnya.
Perkara-perkara yang disebut didalam Al Quran pasti ada makna dan kaitan dengan kehidupan. Emas dan perak perlu di keluarkan zakat.
Pada zaman ini, kita telah dipermudahkan untuk memperolehi bacaan daripada internet dan buku-buku yang menarik. Kita boleh menganalisa fakta-fakta berkenaan emas dan perak dari masa ke semasa. Dalam masa yang sama, jangan pula kita terlupa mendalami ilmu quran, hadith dan sebagainya.